Early voting for the August 7th 2008 Tennessee state primary elections begins 54 days from today on July 18th. Even numbered Tennessee State Senate Districts are up for election. Following is our analysis of the races, and our prediction for which party will end up controlling the State Senate.

District 2:

Incumbent Republican and Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey faces Democrat Bill Jones who does not appear to be actively campaigning. Both are unopposed in the primary. Ramsey will win easily making this a safe seat for Republicans.

District 4:

Incumbent "NASCAR party" Sen. Mike Williams will be on the ballot as an Independent, facing Republican challenger Mike Faulk.

Williams bailed from the Republican party in March of last year, citing concerns about "overwhelming partisanship" and divisiveness. Sen. Paul Stanley said "He has given us a hunting license to go into his district."

Republicans drafted Hawkins County attorney Mike Faulk, who has a strong resume, the full backing of the Tennessee Republican party, and an endorsement from Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey.

First quarter financial disclosures show Williams with $21,000 on hand, $3100 in expenditures, and no contributions listed on that filing. Faulk had $104,846 on hand, $18,740 in contributions, $50,000 in self loans, and spent $8300.

Democrats briefly fielded candidate Phillip Mabe who would have run unopposed in the primary, but he withdrew, as did Republican challenger James Ramsey.

This will be an interesting contest, because it might decide control of the Senate. If Faulk and the state GOP are successful in their bid to unseat Williams, Faulk could very well be the tiebreaker giving Republicans "solid" 17-16 control. If independent-minded voters reject the idea of GOP outsiders meddling in their district and stick with Williams, the next session could be another 16-16-1 stalemate in the Senate, although Williams generally votes with Republicans. Neither outcome is particularly helpful for Democrats.

It's a tough call, but we predict Faulk will take this one back for the Republicans.

District 6:

Incumbent Republican Jamie Woodson faces Democrat Gary Farmer, both unopposed in the primary.

Woodson had $141,000 on hand in the first quarter, $22,000 in expenditures, and no contributions reported. She reported $126,000 in late 2007 contributions. Farmer's report is not listed on the state website.

Jamie Woodson is golden in her district and will easily win reelection. Put this one in the "safe" column for Republicans.

District 8:

This is an interest race, because Republicans decided to challenge their own incumbent Raymond Finney in the primary. Finney will face popular Republican State Rep. Doug Overbey (who is giving up his House seat to challenge Finney) and Republican Jim Bishop. Independent Ira (Doc) Lapides will also be on the general election ballot.

This will be a tough fight between Overbey who, is considered the "establishment" Republican candidate versus Finney, who is considered a "loose cannon" by the party. A Christian conservative, Finney is popular in this heavily Republican district. Overbey has the backing of the powerful Blount County GOP machine.

Bishop reports no cash on hand, no contributions, and no expenditures for the first quarter, and does not appear to be actively campaigning. Lapides's campaign finance report is not listed on the state website and he does not appear to be actively campaigning.

Finney reported no contributions in the first quarter, but had $272,000 on hand, mostly from over $200,000 in self loans. He reported contributions of $26,000 in the fourth quarter of 2007.

Overbey reported no contributions in the first quarter, $4,000 in expenditures, and $175,000 on hand. He reported $80,000 in contributions for the fourth quarter of 2007.

Democrats ran no challenger in the Senate race, and are not running a candidate for Overbey's vacated seat in House District 20.

Republicans will hold this seat, but it will be a tough internal fight.

District 10:

Incumbent Democrat Andy Berke is unopposed in the primary, and will face the winner of the Republican primary between Oscar Brown and Basil Marceaux. Berke was elected in a special election to replace Ward Crutchfield, who resigned after pleading guilty to bribery charges related to the Tennessee Waltz sting.

Berke reports $97,000 on hand for the first quarter, with no contributions and $12,000 in expenditures. He reported $61,000 in receipts for the fourth quarter in 2007.

Oscar Brown has no campaign finance report listed on the state website. Marceaux reports no cash on hand, no contributions, and no expenditures. Neither appears to be actively campaigning.

This looks like a win for Berke and a safe seat for Democrats.

District 12:

Incumbent Democrat Tommy Kilby is retiring, throwing the field wide open in this mostly rural district. The general election ballot is set, with Democrat Becky Ruppe, Republican Ken Yager, and Independent Chris Fenner the only candidates running in the primary.

This is an evenly split but conservative district. Kilby is a conservative "Blue Dog" Democrat. Democrat and Morgan County Mayor Becky Ruppe shares Kilby's conservative values and looks to be a strong contender. She is endorsed by Kilby and popular U.S. Representative Lincoln Davis from her district.

Ken Yager is a former six-time Roane County Mayor and currently Dean of Business and Technology at Roane State Community College. He appears to be running a token resistance campaign but could have a shot.

Yager reports $31,000 in first quarter contributions, $12,000 in expenditures, and $96,000 on hand.

Ruppe reports $35,000 in first quarter contributions, $14,000 in expenditures, and $60,000 on hand.

Republicans are looking to pick up a seat here, and it could be close. We are biased here at TennViews, though, so we are going to say optimistically that this is a win for Ruppe and a safe seat for Democrats, based mainly on the strength of her endorsements.

District 14:

This will be another interesting race. Long-serving Sen. Jerry Cooper resigned in December following a bank fraud scandal in which he was ordered to pay $120,000 in fines although he was acquitted of federal fraud charges. Warren County Commission appointed now incumbent Democrat Steve Roller on a narrow 12-10 vote after nine ballots.

Roller faces two challengers in the Democratic primary. Eric Stewart is an insurance man and former Franklin County Commissioner with a high-powered campaign staff. Tullahoma businessman Jim Woodard appears to be running a low profile campaign.

Republicans looking to pick up a seat are running Mike Niederhauser, Lynn Sebourn, and James Threet. Of the three, only Lynn Sebourn appears to be running a serious campaign. He is on the Tullahoma Municipal Planning Commission and has been involved in the GOP party organization.

Roller reports $22,000 on hand for the first quarter, with no contributions and no expenditures. Sebourn reports $3400 on hand for the first quarter, with $50 in contributions and a $4000 loan to his own campaign and $615 in expenditures. Stewart's report is not listed on the state website, but his campaign reports $90,000 on hand. Woodard and Threet do not have reports listed, and Niederhauser's report is all zeroes.

The mostly rural 14th district is strong for Democratics. Republican might have a slight chance here if Cooper's ethics problems are on the minds of voters. Also, Roller hasn't been in office long enough to get much incumbent advantage. Fundraising reported by Stewart's campaign appears to strongly favor him. With a Democratic incumbent, a strong Democratic challenger, and the district's Democratic tradition, we will be optimistic and predict this seat will stay in the D column.

District 16:

Incumbent Republican Jim Tracy is running unopposed in the primary. Democrats are looking to pick up a seat here. Teacher Dee Butler and optometrist Jean Anne Rogers will face off in the Democratic primary, and the winner will challenge Tracy in the general election.

This is a "swing" district that trends Democratic. We are unable to find much info on any of these candidates, though, and neither Democrat appears to be campaigning hard.

Tracy is presumably laying low until the general election. He reported $206,000 on hand for the first quarter, with $7300 in expenditures and no contributions. He reported $183,000 in contributions for the fourth quarter of 2007. Dee Butler reports $162 on hand, $861 in debt, and no other activity. Rogers does not have a campaign finance report listed on the state's website.

It appears Republicans are pretty serious about keeping this seat, so we will mark it down as safe for Republicans.

District 18:

Incumbent Republican Diane Black is running unopposed in the primary, and will face off in the general with Democratic challenger Jim Hawkins who is also running unopposed in the primary.

This is another mostly rural district that is almost evenly split. Black narrowly defeated Democratic challenger Jo Ann Graves 51% to 49% in the 2004 election after serving three terms in the House. [Ed. Note: election results incorrectly transcribed in original post, now corrected.]

Attorney Jim Hawkins appears to be a credible candidate but is not generating much buzz that I can detect.

Black reports $114,000 on hand for the first quarter, with $2000 in expenditures and no contributions. She reported $93,000 in contributions for the fourth quarter of 2007. There are no reports listed on the state website for Jim Hawkins.

A Democratic upset is possible, but this looks to be a safe seat for Republicans.

District 20:

Incumbent Nashville Democrat Joe Haynes will square off with Republican David Hall in the general election. Both are running unopposed in the primary.

David Hall reports receipts of $100.25 and cash on hand of $100.25 for the first quarter. Joe Haynes, who has held this seat for over twenty years, reports $162,000 cash on hand for the first quarter.

Haynes, who ran unopposed in 2004, will easily retain this seat for the Democrats.

District 22:

Incumbent Democrat and Speaker Pro Tem Rosalind Kurita faces Clarksville attorney David Barnes in the primary. Kurita is popular and well respected, but has drawn the ire of some Democrats for casting the deciding vote to elect Republican Ron Ramsey as Lt. Governor.

Kurita has a first quarter ending balance of $207,000. No reports for the current cycle are available for Barnes on the state website.

Kurita will win this one easily, but either way it is safe for Democrats because Republicans did not field a candidate.

District 24:

Incumbent Democrat Roy Herron is running unopposed, so this one stays in the D column.

District 26:

Elder Democratic statesman John Wilder announced his retirement after 44 distinguished years of service in the Tennessee Senate. As Lt. Governor for 36 years, he was the longest serving leader of any legislative body in the U.S. until his 2007 defeat by Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey. Republicans would like to pick up a seat here but it doesn't seem likely.

Democrats are fielding one candidate, Randy Camp, who will face the winner of the Republican primary between Dolores Gresham, Tim Linder, and Bob Shutt.

Camp has a strong resume, which includes stints as Sen. Wilder's chief of staff, head of the Tennessee Administrative Office of the Courts, and head of the Department of Personnel under Gov. Phil Bredesen. He was facing a challenge in the primary from Fayetville attorney Steve Butler, but Butler withdrew and threw his support behind Camp to avoid a primary battle and mount a united Democratic front.

Rep. Dolores Gresham is currently serving in the House from District 94 and is the odds on favorite to win the primary. Dr. Tim Linder and pharmacist Bob Shutt are running low profile campaigns.

Linder reports receipts of $4600 plus a self loan of $5000 and an ending balance of $9200 for the first quarter. Gresham reports an ending balance of $48,000, with $40,000 in contributions and a $10,000 self loan reported for the fourth quarter of 2007. Randy Camp and Bob Shutt do not have a campaign finance report listed on the state website.

With limited information on the Democratic candidate's fundraising, this one is a tough call. It's another rural and somewhat evenly split district. Camp can keep his powder dry until the general, and Republicans will have to spend some money and their fundraising appears weak. Wilder will presumably endorse Camp, and either way voters in that district might reflexively pull the D lever (or touch the D icon as the case may be) as they have for 44 years.

Being the optimists we are, we will call this one a win for the D column in a tough race.

District 28:

Incumbent Senate Democratic Leader Jim Kyle is running unopposed, so this one goes in the D column.

District 30:

Incumbent Democrat Beverly Marrero is running unopposed, so chalk up another one for the Democrats.

District 32:

Incumbent Mark Norris is running unopposed, so this one stays with the Republicans.

Final Tally:

If my math is right, Republicans in odd number districts not up for reelection will retain ten seats to the Democrats' seven. Republicans running unopposed will get one seat and unopposed Democrats will get three. Democrats and Republicans will split the contested races six to six.

This means Republicans will gain control of the Senate 17 to 16.

Races to watch:

In our opinion, the races to watch are the 4th District, where Williams could be the spoiler and leave the Senate at 16-16-1, the 12th District for a possible Republican win in a squeaker, the 14th District for an unlikely but not inconceivable Republican upset if the Democrats tear each other up in the primary, the 16th District for a surprise Audacity of Hope Democratic upset, the 18th District which could be competitive for Democrats, and the rebooted 26th District where anything could happen because they will have to actually think about who to vote for after 44 years on autopilot.

Message to Democrats: GET BUSY!

(P.S. If you'd like to help out, we've setup an ActBlue page for Tennessee State Senate Democratic Candidates who are fundraising via ActBlue.)