It may end up being a safe seat for Republicans, but incumbent Rep. David Davis [1] of Tennessee's 1st Congressional District may have a primary fight on his hands.

Republican primary challenger and current Johnson City Mayor Phil Roe [2] is said to have out-fundraised Davis $120K to $80K in the first quarter, according to this article in The Hill [3].

On the Democrat side, Rob Russell [4], a popular musician and ETSU instructor and director of ETSU's Writing and Communications Center, appears to be the credible candidate. There will also be three independents on the ballot [5].

In 2006, Davis beat the Democratic challenger (Morristown city councilman Rick Trent) in the general 108,336 to 65,538, which is a respectable showing for the Democrat in a district that leans heavily Republican. But some estimates suggest there are more independents than Republicans and Democrats combined.

Can Davis survive a primary challenge? If so, will he enter the general already weakened? Can a relatively unknown Democrat ride the wave of anti-Republican sentiment to a win?

Should be interesting.

UPDATE: Some interesting thoughts from Joe Powell [6], who lives in the district.